Now that we know an iPhone SDK is coming, here are my predictions about it based on all of His Holiness’ statements about “security” and “protecting the network”:
Prediction One. No retail iPhone will run unsigned apps, ever, at all. There will be no possibility to install them by clicking through warning dialogs, as you can on Windows Mobile and Series 60.
Prediction Two. The only way to load apps onto a retail iPhone will be through iTunes (okay, that part’s a no-brainer), and the only way to get loadable apps into iTunes will be to buy them from the iTunes Store.
Prediction Three. To get an app signed and listed in the iTunes store, developers will be required to submit it for approval and certification. Not only Apple, but their carrier partners on a country-by-country basis will have veto power over which applications appear in the store.
Prediction Four. Apple will set the prices for iPhone apps. Either they will all be a flat rate, or more likely they will have several tiers of pricing. Which tier an app ends up in will depend on Apple, the carriers, and what kind of app it is; developers won’t be able to choose.
Prediction Five. Out of the price for iPhone apps, both Apple and the carrier will get a cut, the total of which will be larger than the fees typically charged by shareware registration services.
Prediction Six. The means used by developers to test their apps on real hardware may be hackable, but will not work for general app distribution. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a method that involves ADC membership with a signature that allows app updates to only work with a specific registered iPhone.
Prediction Seven. The SDK will not be free; it will either be sold separately at a price commensurate with other pro development tools, or (more likely) require a paid ADC membership.
Prediction Eight. If there is a way to develop iPhone apps that doesn’t have these restrictions, it will be based on Dashboard widgets, and widgets will be sandboxed at least as restrictively as Java applets in a browser.
So, I guess I’ll revisit this post in February and see how close I got…
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